India’s retail market to expand with e-commerce rising to $300 billion by 2030
https://www.dfupublications.com/index.php/component/search/?searchword=india%27s%20retail&searchphrase=all&Itemid=21626 February 2026, Mumbai
A fundamental restructuring of India’s retail landscape is underway with the e-commerce market projected to hit $300 billion by 2030. According to the latest Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report, ‘Connected Commerce,’ the sector is moving beyond a metro-centric model to a truly national digital habit. As of early 2026, India boasts nearly 300 million online shoppers - a figure expected to reach 440 million by the decade's end - fueled by 140 million middle-income households crossing the discretionary spending threshold.
Fashion emerges as a high-velocity growth engine
While electronics once dominated digital carts, the apparel and lifestyle categories are now expanding at a 22 per cent CAGR, significantly outpacing general retail. The sector is witnessing a sharp ‘K-economy’ split where women, now comprising 45 per cent of the shopper base, are driving premiumization in western wear and beauty. Simultaneously, the ‘trend-first’ commerce model is gaining traction, with affordable, frequent collection drops projected to create a $10 billion sub-sector by 2028. This momentum is increasingly anchored in Tier-II and Tier-III cities, which now account for over 60 per cent of all e-commerce shipments.
The rise of direct-to-consumer and quick commerce integration
The most disruptive shift in 2026 is the surge of Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channels, which are growing three times faster than traditional marketplaces. Approximately 53 per cent of India's 60 million MSMEs now prefer selling through independent digital storefronts to secure first-party data and better margins. Furthermore, the expansion of quick commerce into fashion essentials -such as basic knitwear and activewear - is redefining logistics. Retail is becoming structurally multi-channel, notes Parul Bajaj, Leader-Marketing India, BCG. Brands failing to integrate online discovery with offline trust risk losing the 50% of consumers who now research digitally before purchasing in-store, she adds.
India’s e-commerce ecosystem encompasses e-retail and e-services, serving over 300 million active shoppers. Moving toward a 2030 target of $300 billion, the sector focuses on D2C expansion and hyper-local logistics. Since the 2020 digital pivot, the industry has transitioned into a fragmented yet highly efficient omnichannel powerhouse.
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